Inflow forecast
model output — not a measurementNOAA’s National Water Model, short-range run issued Sep 14, 1 AM CDT, for the 2 gauged tributary reaches feeding Lake Texoma. The model routes rainfall that has already fallen plus near-term forecast precipitation.
Gauged inflow now
69.1
cfs · measured
Peak next 18h
193.5
cfs · ~7 PM CDT · modeled
Projected volume
200
acre-feet over 18h · modeled
Net lake effect
0.00 ft
after 55.5 cfs out · inferred
Projected flow by tributary reach
Dashed = forecast. Values are at the gauges, not at the lake — water takes hours to a couple of days to travel downstream from the gauges to the lake. Flows are projected to rise meaningfully. National Water Model via NOAA/NWS · public domain.
The “net lake effect” nets the projected inflow volume against the water currently leaving the lake (55.5 cfs — Red River at Denison Dam, right now), held constant over the horizon, spread over the lake’s estimated surface area (before releases it would be 0.00 ft). It ignores travel time, channel losses, and any change the dam operators make — a scale reference, not a prediction. During floods, watch the live dashboard instead.